Israel’s recent airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has thrown Iran into a serious quandary. With the loss of such a crucial ally, Tehran now faces the challenge of maintaining its influence in the region.
Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death after Israel announced it had “eliminated” him in a strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs. This marks a dramatic escalation in the ongoing tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, particularly following nearly a year of escalating cross-border exchanges since the Gaza conflict reignited.
In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised that Nasrallah’s death “will not be in vain,” while First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref stated it would lead to Israel’s “destruction.” Additionally, Iran vowed to avenge the killing of Revolutionary Guards General Abbas Nilforoushan, who died alongside Nasrallah.
Karim Sadjadpour from the Carnegie Endowment noted that Nasrallah was integral to Iran’s strategy for regional expansion, as Hezbollah is often viewed as the “crown jewel” of Iran’s allies. However, analysts like Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group point out that despite the loss, Iran remains reluctant to engage directly in the conflict.
A Complex Dilemma for Iran
This situation has left Iran grappling with a “serious dilemma,” especially as Hezbollah’s deterrence against Israel is now “in complete disarray.” According to Mehdi Zakerian, an international relations professor in Tehran, the situation illustrates that Iran-aligned groups have struggled not only to contain Israel but have also suffered significant setbacks.
Nasrallah’s death follows closely on the heels of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, further heightening tensions. Zakerian argues that rebuilding Hezbollah will be a formidable challenge for Iran, particularly amid its own economic struggles, as diverting resources to assist Hezbollah could worsen its economic crisis.
Iran is currently grappling with the effects of international sanctions, leading to soaring inflation and unemployment, while its currency has plummeted against the dollar. The government has been attempting to ease these sanctions and revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which unraveled after the U.S. withdrawal.
Navigating Rising Tensions
Analysts suggest Iran has been walking a tightrope since the Gaza conflict began, striving to project strength without inciting a direct U.S. response. Even during a rare direct attack on Israel in April, Iranian missiles were largely intercepted, demonstrating the complexities of military engagement.
Despite these challenges, Vaez emphasizes that Iran is keen to preserve whatever remains of Hezbollah, viewing the group as a vital shield. “I don’t think Iranians would abandon 40 years of investment overnight due to a few targeted killings,” he asserts.
Communication and Coordination Challenges
However, Iran faces significant hurdles in maintaining communication with Hezbollah and supplying weapons. Israeli military operations aim to prevent Iran from sending arms via Beirut airport, complicating support efforts. Political commentator Mossadegh Mossadeghpour noted that it’s now “too late” for Iran to reinforce Hezbollah, though he believes the group can recover, as it has in the past.
Hezbollah’s internal communication has also been severely disrupted, with recent sabotage attacks impacting their pagers and walkie-talkies. Vaez predicts it will be “very difficult” for Iranian officials to coordinate with their allies, especially compared to past conflicts.
As violence escalates, Hezbollah’s seemingly weak responses have raised questions about their capacity and willingness to act. Analysts speculate that Iran hopes Hezbollah will regroup and launch a significant offensive against Israel to reaffirm its strength and resolve in the face of adversity.
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