After suffering a crushing defeat in the Delhi Assembly elections, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has finally conducted an internal review to analyze what went wrong. The most significant takeaway from their assessment? The middle-class voters, who previously shifted their support to AAP in state elections, did not return this time.
Unlike in 2014 and 2020, when the middle-class electorate overwhelmingly backed AAP in Assembly polls, this time, they remained loyal to the BJP, allowing the saffron party to claim victory in Delhi after 27 years.
A Shift in Voting Patterns
For the past decade, Delhi had followed a distinct voting pattern—while the BJP swept all seven Lok Sabha seats, AAP dominated the Assembly elections. This was largely due to middle-class voters who supported Modi at the national level but Kejriwal in state elections. However, this time, that trend did not hold, leading to AAP’s downfall.
According to AAP sources, their initial assessment has identified three primary reasons behind their defeat.
1. The Middle-Class Did Not Return to AAP
A significant portion of middle-class voters, who had previously supported AAP in Assembly elections despite voting for BJP in Lok Sabha elections, did not switch sides this time.
One key factor that worked in BJP’s favor was the Union Budget announcement of zero income tax for individuals earning up to ₹12 lakh per year. This move resonated deeply with the middle class, strengthening BJP’s appeal.
AAP failed to anticipate the impact of this announcement, as their internal surveys did not reflect this shift. The Budget was presented on February 1, while the election campaign ended on February 3, leaving little time for AAP to counter its effects.
2. Lack of Closed-Door Strategy Meetings in the Final Phase
AAP leaders believe that a better internal strategy could have helped them prevent BJP’s surge. In previous elections, AAP had conducted closed-door meetings in the final campaign phase to consolidate their voter base, particularly among women.
Before the nominations began, AAP had organized outreach events like “Revdi Par Charcha” and “Pink Parcha” to engage female voters. However, in the final stretch of the campaign, they failed to hold such meetings, which could have helped mobilize last-minute voter support.
AAP’s overconfidence in their ability to retain power may have led them to overlook this crucial step.
3. The Role of Money and Fear Tactics
AAP leadership claims that while money and liquor distribution have always been part of election tactics, this time, BJP combined it with fear-mongering to influence voter behavior.
AAP’s core voter base, particularly those living in Delhi’s slums, was allegedly intimidated, leading to lower voter turnout in their favor. Many AAP supporters did not even step out to vote, further shrinking their vote share.
The impact was massive—AAP, which held 62 out of 70 seats in the previous Assembly, was reduced to just 22 seats, while BJP secured 48 seats, marking a historic shift.
AAP’s New Roadmap: Regaining Ground
Despite the defeat, AAP has set three key objectives to bounce back and strengthen its political standing.
1. Strengthening the ‘Punjab Model’
AAP aims to retain its stronghold in Punjab and actively develop a governance model that can serve as a success story. Recently, a Punjab cabinet meeting was held in Delhi, highlighting the party’s focus on governance in the state.
2. Playing a Strong Opposition Role in Delhi
With BJP now in power, AAP remains the sole opposition in the Delhi Assembly. The party plans to aggressively challenge BJP’s policies, ensuring that they remain politically relevant in the capital.
3. Expanding AAP’s National Footprint
AAP is now eyeing Gujarat and Goa as key states for expansion, while simultaneously working to rebuild its grassroots network in Delhi and Punjab. The goal is to grow beyond a regional force and establish a national presence.
Internal Reshuffle: AAP’s Plan for Delhi
AAP is preparing for major leadership changes in its Delhi unit. With many of its top leaders losing elections, the party is planning to assign them new strategic roles while also implementing structural changes within the Delhi organization.
The first step will be reconnecting with booth-level workers and ground volunteers to understand voter sentiment. Based on their feedback, AAP will make further changes in leadership and strategy.
A Reality Check for AAP
This election has been nothing short of a wake-up call for AAP. After ten years in power, the party now finds itself reduced to just 22 seats in the Assembly, while BJP emerges victorious with 48 seats.
To make matters worse, party chief Arvind Kejriwal, former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia, and several other key leaders lost their own seats, signaling a major voter shift.
With the battle for Delhi far from over, AAP now faces its biggest political challenge yet—can they rebuild before the next election, or will BJP’s dominance continue to grow?
